Cheltenham, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

904
FXUS61 KPHI 020551
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1251 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind Advisory cancelled for Carbon and Monroe counties in PA.
Highest wind gusts in the higher elevations (Pocono plateau) and
mostly below 45 mph.

Gale Warnings changed to a Small Craft Advisory. Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning cancelled.

Tuesday has the best chance for parts of the area to experience
above freezing temperatures. Temperatures will mostly be below
freezing for the rest of the week. Arctic air returns next
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another frigid night expected with wind chills below zero
for most of the area. Blustery winds anticipated through this
evening.

2. Widespread minor coastal flooding expected for much of the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware with the Monday
morning high tide.

3. Well below normal temperatures will continue this week with
many areas remaining below freezing.

4. There are several chance for light snow this week with
minimal accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another frigid night expected with wind chills
below zero for most of the area. Blustery winds anticipated
through this evening.

As a storm offshore pulls farther away, some lingering impacts
remain. The pressure gradient remains tight with the deepening
low offshore and high pressure coming in. This resulted in gusty
northwest winds. The Wind Advisory for Carbon and Monroe counties
in PA was cancelled as the highest gusts are in the higher elevations
in and around Mount Pocono (Pocono plateau) and mostly below 45
mph.

Winds will slowly wane as we get into the overnight hours, but
still expecting a breeze overnight. Temperatures between 5 and
15 tonight, combined with a steady breeze (or even outright
gusty conditions in the Poconos) will result in wind chills
below zero for most of the region. As a result, the Cold Weather
Advisory was reissued for central and most of southern NJ,
northern Delmarva, and SE PA including Philadelphia, valid from
10 PM tonight to 10 AM Monday morning.

North Jersey and the Lehigh Valley were left out as their
criteria for cold weather headlines are lower than what is
forecast. For areas in southeast NJ and lower Delmarva that were
left out, wind chills should stay just above 0. Outside of SE
NJ and lower Delmarva, wind chills region-wide will hover
between 0 and 5 below zero. In the Poconos, wind chills as low
as 15 below zero are expected.

Overall, this looks like it will be the last night for the Cold
Weather Advisory for at least a few days. Temperatures on
Monday climb into the upper 20s/low 30s but unlikely any
locations gets above freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding expected for
much of the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware with the
Monday morning high tide.

Confidence has increased that another round of widespread minor
coastal flooding will occur with the Monday morning high tide.
Tidal levels remain higher across multiple observing sites due
to higher astronomical tides with the full moon this evening, as
well as continued swells from the offshore system. As a result,
with the higher of the high tides, water levels will once again
increase and result in widespread minor coastal flooding for
coastal areas from Ocean County southward along the Atlantic
coast of New Jersey, as well as the coasts of Sussex County,
Delaware. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for 7 AM - 1
PM Monday as a result. Spotty minor flooding may occur along the
coasts of Monmouth and Middlesex County as well as the Delaware
Bay and along all the aforementioned coasts with the high tide
tonight. Impacts of tidal flooding will continue to be
complicated by ice that is already developing along the back
bays and could be pushed onshore during high tide, as well as
flood waters potentially freezing on roadways.

The threat for coastal flooding will decrease following Monday
morning`s high tide as we move away from the full moon and the
offshore coastal low continues to track further away. Tidal
flooding is not expected along the coasts of the tidal Delaware
River, or the Chesapeake Bay in the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well below normal temperatures will continue
this week with many areas remaining below freezing.

High pressure will be off the Southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday,
and return flow will allow for somewhat warmer (relatively
speaking) temperatures into the region. Temperatures this week
remain well below normal levels with the exception being
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday for the Delaware Valley, including
Philadelphia, southern New Jersey, and Delmarva will top off in
the mid and even upper 30s with highs near 40 in southern
Delaware. North of that area, for the southern Poconos, northern
New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, highs will mostly be in the
lower 30s with some spots possibly touching the freezing mark
depending on how much sun can come out.

High temperatures will then be about 3 to 5 degrees cooler
through Friday. Another Arctic front comes through Friday night
and highs next weekend look to be in the teens and 20s once
again.

In terms of low temperatures, despite highs mostly in the 30s
or so this week, lows will be in the single digits to maybe low
teens, then in the single digits to as low as 5 below next
weekend. Minimum wind chills will be in the single digits for
the middle of the week, then possibly from 10 below to 15 below
next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 4...There are several chance for light snow this
week with minimal accumulation.

Surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. on Tuesday moves
out to sea Tuesday night, and then a broad upper trough digs
down into the Southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast states
while a closed H5 low passes through eastern Canada just north
of the U.S.-Canada border. Strong shortwave energy passes
through the Northeast, and weak surface low pressure originating
from the Midwest approaches the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday, then
quickly passes through Delmarva and southern New Jersey Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. This system is fairly week and
rather moisture starved, but it will be fairly cold and light
snow will impact the area during this time. Overall, less than
an inch of snow is expected for the majority of the area from
the Lehigh Valley south, with an inch or so possible over
northern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. The 48 hour NBM
13Z/01 probability for more than 1/2 inch of snow is around 30
percent for southern New Jersey and Delmarva and less than 20
percent elsewhere and 15 to 20 percent for more than 1 inch of
snow in that same period. Impacts should mostly be minimal.

The next chance for snow arrives on Friday as a clipper system
ahead of an Arctic front passes through the region. Once again,
this system, looks to be mostly moisture starved, so not
expecting much in the way of snow accumulation with most models
indicating perhaps a couple of inches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of tonight (through 12Z)...VFR. Northwest winds 10-20
knots with gusts to 25 knots, then some diminishing overnight.
Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR. Northwest to west-northwest winds 10-15 knots, with
some gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/NSW.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions in SN possible,
mostly at KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...Sub-VFR in SN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 6 PM, the remaining Gale Warning has been replaced with a
Small Craft Advisory as winds slowly diminish some more. The
Small Craft Advisory goes through Noon Monday on Delaware Bay
and through 6 PM Monday for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic
coastal waters. Elevated seas will gradually subside through
Monday given the offshore wind component.

Despite the gusty winds, elevated seas and very cold air over
the water, freezing spray has been on the lighter side regarding
hourly ice accretion rates based on the available buoy data.
More ice cover in Delaware Bay should limit the freezing spray.
As a result, cancelled the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning and
included a mention of light freezing spray into Monday.

Regarding the river ice threat...Ice has formed across area bay
waters and inland estuaries. This includes, but is not limited
to the Delaware estuary. On rivers, the ice has grown in
thickness enough to start causing restrictions in flow. An
example of this can be seen at the Trenton River gauge. Per
satellite imagery, the Delaware River is pretty much ice covered
from just south of Trenton upstream to about Washington
Crossing.

The most common ways river ice can break up is either through a
thermal or mechanical means. We would like to see temperatures
rise into the 40s for a few days, but that`s not in the offing
through next weekend. Rainfall, producing river rises, can also
break up ice. But again, that`s not in the forecast either this
coming week.

As a result, we expect the ice we`re seeing to expand before it
contracts. Even though there may be a pause in the growth
during the daylight hours this coming week, temperatures at
night will support expansion.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Generally sub-SCA conditions this
week. As a result, chances for freezing spray will decrease.
Visibility restrictions in snow possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and again on Friday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ054-
     055-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ009-
     010-012>022-026-027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NJZ020-022>027.
DE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ001-
     002.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for DEZ003-004.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ012.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/Hoeflich/MPS
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/MJL/MPS
MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich/Kruzdlo/MPS